Tuesday, February 20, 2007


A recent University of New Hampshire poll for WMUR-TV in Manchester leads with the fact that Giuliani's net favorability rating was 56 percent versus McCain’s 32 percent. Romney was in third at 26 percent. This somewhat surprised me given earlier polls that showed McCain and Giuliani much closer. Then I noticed the followup statement that said for likely primary voters McCain and Giuliani were tied at about 27 percent, followed by Romney at 13 percent and Gingrich at 9 percent.

The article justifies the lead with the favorability factor in that this far in advance of an election the professionals look at that versus who the person would likely vote for. That may be the case in the past but Giuliani has not even declared. When he does, his more liberal social views would likely impact his ability to capture conservative republican primary voters.